LeadCoverage Market Intelligence - Week of October 12, 2026
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The U.S. struck a deal for Russian diesel, and one expert called it “shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.” Diesel still averages about $6.28 a gallon, truckers say fuel is outrunning their rates, and only about 4% of the trucks at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are electric, even now. Shippers are shortening the trip by moving warehouses closer to customers. Top off the tank before you read on.
Here is what is moving the market this week.
$6.28/GAL▲
Diesel average Friday, up from $3.68 a year ago
~4%
Port of LA and Long Beach trucks that are zero-emission
314M SQ FT▲
Industrial space under construction, up 16% in H1
5.1%
Chicago industrial vacancy vs. 7.3% nationally
01
Fuel Markets
Russian Diesel Won’t Cool Prices
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Russian Supply Starts Small: Russia, which banned diesel exports in July, will send the U.S. more than 300,000 tons now, 500,000 in November and 4 million later, but experts expect little change in prices.
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Refining Still Offline: Refined products are still barely half of prewar levels because Hormuz disruptions keep Middle East refining off the world market, leading Columbia’s Daniel Sternoff to say extra Russian diesel might ease prices but not lower them substantially.
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Delivery Fees Rise With Diesel: Diesel averaged about $6.28 a gallon on Friday, up from nearly $3.68 a year ago, leading some businesses to add fees to online orders and mailed packages.
Fuel Outruns Freight Rates: Economist Stephen Burks says fuel costs tend to rise more quickly than rates do, leading drivers to absorb higher costs in the interim, with fuel surcharges only softening the blow.
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Small Operators Start Quitting: A Southern California fleet owner says port truck yards look thinner as operators sell trucks and leave, leading him to warn that enough exits could cause supply chain shortages.
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Capacity May Rebuild: Michigan State’s Jason Miller expects higher rates to lure drivers back in coming months, leading him to call the industry out of balance but not structurally short of drivers.
Ports Weigh a $60-a-Trip Subsidy: Los Angeles and Long Beach are considering paying $60 for each container move by a zero-emission truck, capped at $36,000 per truck a year, leading to a board vote in the coming months.
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Electric Share Stays Small: Fewer than 700 of the 17,000 trucks serving the two ports are zero-emission, about 4%, leading early adopters to say they can’t charge the rates needed to cover higher costs against cheaper diesel rivals.
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Record Diesel Falls Short: Diesel hit a national record of $6.528 a gallon in September, yet port truckers say charging downtime and lost utilization erase the energy savings, leading them to doubt higher diesel will make electric trucks pay.
Warehouse Pipeline Grows: Industrial space under construction rose 16% in the first half to 314 million square feet, per Colliers, leading the article to point to signs of a new industrial real estate cycle.
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Diesel Pushes Sites Closer: With diesel above $6 and double-digit transportation rate increases, some shippers are turning to smaller sites near customers, leading to lower outbound costs even where inbound costs rise.
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Midwest Space Tightens First: Manufacturing demand has pushed Chicago’s vacancy to 5.1% and Indianapolis’s to 6.5%, below the 7.3% national average, leading to higher Midwest LTL volumes just as closures like Holland trim regional capacity.
EASE Logistics and Einride put two cabless electric trucks into daily freight service between EASE’s Marysville, Ohio warehouses, with CEO Peter Coratola Jr. telling FreightWaves that driverless trucks can handle the “unplanned routes” while drivers keep planned plant runs.
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