Welcome to the LeadCoverage weekly Market Intelligence.
I think the Friday WSJ headline said it best: “The Cost of Transporting Pretty Much Everything Just Won’t Stop Going Up.” Diesel costs hit a record $6.53 a gallon last week and shippers are paying $3.11 per mile, highest since ’22. Ocean carriers are pushing through $2,000 to $3,000 rate hikes on October 1 and truck dwell times at the Ports are near 18-month highs. Read all about it, just don’t shoot the messenger!
Here is what is moving the market this week
$6.53/GAL▲
Record U.S. diesel price (Sept. 22)
$3,000▲
Top-end Oct. 1 GRI per 40-ft container
2.95 DAYS▲
LA-Long Beach truck dwell in August
16 MONTHS
Vincent Thomas Bridge closure
01
Geopolitical Risk
Trump Rejects Iran's Offer to Reopen Hormuz
◆
Ceasefire Offer Rejected: Iran proposed a seven-day pause that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade, leading Trump to reject it outright.
◆
Bombing May Resume After Midterms: U.S. officials say Trump has told aides he expects renewed strikes after November, leading to a longer runway for Gulf war-risk costs.
◆
Diesel Follows the War: Diesel is up 77% in the past year and hit a record $6.53 a gallon on September 22, leading truckers, railroads and parcel carriers to push higher fuel surcharges onto shippers.
GRIs Land October 1: Carriers filed general rate increases of $2,000 to $3,000 per 40-foot container, leading Q4 costs to climb on top of spot rates already above $10,000 from Shanghai to New York.
◆
Carriers Pull Capacity: Lines are removing sailings while demand holds, leading one forwarder CEO to call Q4 “a classic supply-demand mismatch.”
◆
Schedules Swing Both Ways: Vessels are arriving three to four days early or several days late, leading to harder drayage and warehouse appointment planning.
LA Bridge Closure Set to Hit a Port Already Running Hot
◆
Key Port Artery Shuts November 1: Caltrans will close the Vincent Thomas Bridge for a 16-month redecking project, leading roughly 4,664 heavy-duty trucks a day onto local detour routes around the Port of Los Angeles.
◆
Dwells Already Near Highs: Truck dwells at LA-Long Beach hit 2.95 days in August and rail dwells reached 6.75 days, leading truckers to warn that the closure will stack delays on an already strained complex.
◆
Long Turns and Empties Pile Up: The share of truck turns over two hours climbed from 7% in April to 10% in August, leading to empties sitting on chassis and tighter chassis supply for drayage operators.
Seizure Threshold Drops: A proposed customs change would cut the value-difference threshold for precautionary seizures from 50% to 20%, leading to far more shipments open to challenge.
◆
Lawmakers Cite Undervaluation: Supporters point to 2,500+ operations worth $89.6 million now escaping seizure, leading to a push to close the gap.
◆
Automakers Warn of Disruption: Mexico's auto association says component seizures could stall just-in-time production, leading importers to shore up valuation paperwork now.
Da Vinci CEO and President Dan Cavanaugh joined Inbound Logistics' September feature on the next generation of warehouse management systems, explaining why “much more of a 3PL's business depends on getting integrations right on the first try.”
.png?upscale=true&width=380&upscale=true&name=11Lead%20Coverage%20Logo%20White%20(3).png)
